₦285,000 per month on petrol: the generator trap Lagos can't escape
Lagos runs on generators. The numbers are staggering: 4.5 million generators across the city, burning through an estimated ₦14 trillion in fuel annually. That's not a bug in the system — for most Lagosians, it is the system. The national grid delivers 4,000 to 5,000 megawatts to a country of 220 million people. Lagos alone needs 10,000 megawatts. The math doesn't work, and generators fill the gap.
The economics have gotten worse in 2026. Petrol crossed ₦1,320 per litre at NNPC stations in late April after Dangote Refinery raised its gantry price by ₦75, following crude oil above $115 per barrel. Independent stations are already at ₦1,365–₦1,370. A standard 2.5kVA generator running six hours per day — the bare minimum for a Lagos household — now costs approximately ₦285,000 per month in fuel alone. That doesn't include maintenance, oil changes, or the eventual replacement cost.
The Band A tariff paradox is real. NERC's cost-reflective tariff of ₦209.50 per kWh was designed to eliminate the subsidy for high-supply areas. For the 15% of customers on Band A feeders — mostly in Ikoyi, Victoria Island, parts of Lekki and Ikeja GRA — 20+ hours of grid power at ₦73,000 per month is dramatically cheaper than any generator. But Band B through E customers still pay subsidised rates of ₦34–₦56 per kWh while receiving only 4–16 hours of power per day, making generators essential regardless.
Solar is the exit ramp. A 3.5kVA system costs ₦1.2–₦1.8 million installed. At current generator costs, it pays for itself within 30 months and then runs effectively free for 15–20 years. The barrier isn't economics — the numbers are overwhelming — it's capital. The households spending ₦285,000 per month on petrol often can't access the ₦1.5 million needed upfront. Until financing catches up, the generator trap persists.